As I stated at Tuesday night’s public forum on the Crestpointe proposal (when I spoke on the topic of “site selection and planning”), Oak Ridge is trying to make a decision about spending more than $10 million in public funds on a development project that will have long-term effects on the character of our community, but we have not seen the kinds of siting studies we would expect to see if the city was merely approving a development with completely private funding.
There has been no Planning Commission review — in fact, the site is still zoned for industry and is designated for industry in the City comprehensive plan. The City and developers also have not given citizens a picture of what this center — in a prominent location — would look like when viewed from the rest of town. The image above, which I showed Tuesday night, is an amateur effort to simulate the shopping center’s appearance — click on the image to open a larger, more panoramic visual simulation. (This isn’t perfect. For example, I think the 50-ft retaining wall probably would appear higher than shown in these images. However, since the project proponents have not provided any visual depictions, we need to improvise if we want to understand the choices we are making.)
We also have not seen an independent analysis of the expected sales volume for Crestpointe (the city’s estimates are based on generic estimates of revenue per square foot in various types of stores — they do not consider the buying power of our trade area) and there is no professional assessment of the center’s likely impact on other retailers in the community (like the assessment done for the little town of Waconia, Minnesota). As with the visual simulation, if citizens want to understand how this proposal affects our community, we need to improvise our own analysis.
It is widely observed that shoppers like to shop where there are many stores to choose from. Promoters of this proposal say Crestpointe would increase shopping traffic to other Oak Ridge shopping areas. To evaluate whether this is true, consider the distance from Crestpointe to those other shopping areas.
The nearest existing shopping center to Crestpointe is the Kroger-Kmart center. The tiny version of a satellite image of part of Oak Ridge on the right (click for a larger version of the image) shows the two Crestpointe entrances and the K-K center in the lower left — driving distance between the two centers would be more than a mile. This is about the same as the driving distance between Home Depot and the old (now empty) Food City on the east side (upper right of image). That’s too far apart to have an effect on shoppers’ behavior. (There’s no point in talking about walking distance because it looks like it would be impossible to walk safely to Crestpointe. No matter how high gasoline prices rise and no matter how intent we are to reduce our effect on global climate change, shoppers at Crestpointe will arrive by car.) The distance from other shopping is a major reason (the other is financial return to the developer) why GBT Realty wants 60 acres for its proposed center — Target locates stores in many smaller centers that are near other retail, but if it locates in an isolated shopping center it wants that center to have a large concentration of other stores to ensure a critical mass to draw shopping traffic.
ADDED on May 26: Because someone has objected to the visual simulation, saying it does not show how this shopping center would be configured (see the comments about this post), here’s the conceptual plan (from the city’s January 29th presentation) that the simulation is based on. Note that it shows most of the stores lined up along the ridge on the side facing the city. (Note that the road on the lower edge of the picture, which would connect the development to Union Valley, was later deleted from the Crestpointe plan.)
Ellen,
I believe we both agree that enhanced retail options in our city will be a good thing. We simply disagree on some of the details on how to make that happen.
To answer some of your ‘blog postings and the COR pamphlet on this topic, I offer the following:
1. Crestpointe is *not* “… too far apart to have an effect on shoppers’ behavior.” Target ain’t WalMart — and having one a Crestpoint would be far preferable to driving to Turkey Creek. In addition, it would draw customers from surrounding communities — perhaps even Hardin Valley residents who don’t want the gridlock of Parkside Drive and Lovell Road.
2. The alternative site offered (behind the Ford dealer on S. Illinois) is questionable due to its smaller size (i.e., not offering the encouragement for new small retailers in the adjoining spaces Crestpoint’s larger site offers), its present wooded condition (who’s going to pay to clear the land?), its proximity to wetlands (yes, I know you have a friend who looked over a topo map and said it’s not; this is important enough to need deeper inquiry and analysis) and finally the congestion due to increased traffic northwest of the Lafayette-Illinois interchange.
This latter point on traffic is one of the several inconsistencies evident in the COR pamphlet: it sites “poor location” by suggesting “[n]ew stores belong in town,” while also claiming Crestpoint will create a “traffic bottleneck”. These two statements are mutually inconsistent — as is the unsubstantiated declaration by COR that Crestpoint would have an “[a]dverse environmental impact” while also saying “TARGET [is] possible at other sites without public money.”
Our fellow citizens are smart — some of the smartest neighbors I’ve ever had the privilege of knowing. They don’t need political spin or half-truth sound bites. They simply need the unvarnished facts to make up their own minds.
Respectfully,
shane
I find your “image” of CrestPointe very amusing. Its perspective is way off. Since the Target would be on the other end of the plateau, on the other side of the shopping center, it isn’t clear to me that you could even see it much less than it’s one story height would appear taller than one story buildings maybe a quarter of a mile closer? Did you stick the stablizing walls on top of the site rather on the edges where it would support the construction? These seem like pretty gross distortions. What exactly are you trying to say?
Ellen’s response to Shane:
1. I am well aware of the hope that people from places like Hardin Valley would come to Oak Ridge to shop at Crestpointe. After all, this was one of the main arguments made for the proposal when it was first unveiled. It would be nice if this were a realistic expectation, but there’s plenty of evidence that this is nothing more than wishful thinking. For example, I have discussed this with people living in Hardin Valley and Solway — they laugh at the notion that they would drive across the Solway Bridge (a traffic bottleneck in its own right, and for many people it requires making a notoriously dangerous left turn on the highway in Solway) to shop at Crestpointe, when most or all of the very same chain stores exist in and near Turkey Creek. Note that Turkey Creek is as close or closer to them, and it has many more stores to choose from than Crestpointe could possibly have. Recently I was told that there is even an established theory in economic geography that describes this behavior — the “gravity model” says that larger places attract people (including shoppers), ideas, and commodities more effectively than smaller places. As a result, people living halfway between a big city and a small town will prefer to travel to the big city to shop… Finally, there is the widely known phenomenon (something that was going on long before my 25-year residence in Oak Ridge) that chain-store outlets in Oak Ridge have less desirable merchandise and less selection than stores of the same chain in West Knoxville.
Oak Ridge can entice West Knoxville residents to shop here if our commercial sector offers them something they can’t find at Turkey Creek (for example, locally owned specialty shops such as Karen’s Jewelers, The Ferrell Shop, and The Keeping Room; or one-of-a-kind restaurants such as Homeland Cafe and Flatwater Grill), but we won’t get them here by imitating Turkey Creek on a smaller scale.
2. The alternative site that I mentioned is indeed smaller than 60 acres, but it is still plenty big enough for a shopping center including a Target store and several smaller stores. (Around the region and the country, Target locates in plenty of centers smaller than 60 acres.) Furthermore, because the site is not isolated, but is close to existing retail, hotels, and other empty or underutilized commercial properties, a Target store at that location could offer encouragement for other new and existing smaller retailers in locations that already have the zoning and most or all of the necessary infrastructure for retail.
As for the site condition, my information about the location of the wetlands comes from my own study of topographic maps plus consultation with an individual who was extensively involved in the delineation of wetlands in connection with the extensive investigations of contamination that were carried out in this area more than a decade ago. While the 43-acre site includes some wetlands and is adjacent to the most extensive area of wetlands in the city, well over half of it is definitely on high ground and is appropriately shaped for a shopping center. I refer you to my earlier comments on the site for more details. When you have lived in this area longer, you will realize that cutting down trees is not a major challenge for land developers — there likely would be some revenues from sale of the timber. Regarding traffic, the road access for the site would empty onto South Illinois Avenue in a section that is equipped for commercial traffic — it is already 6 lanes wide and it is a flat location that city planning staff has identified (in the South Illinois corridor study) as a spot for a future stoplight when sites like the Bob Monday property are developed. In contrast, Crestpointe would add a large volume of turning traffic at a location on an incline on a road that is the one main route in and out of town (and carries a large volume of traffic) — that’s a recipe for congestion.
Finally, you say that Oak Ridgers are smart people who need “unvarnished facts” to make up their own minds. You’ve hit the nail right on the head. Oak Ridgers have been seeking facts, but much of the “information” that has been disseminated about Crestpointe is nothing more than “spin” and wishful thinking. Smart people do not make major decisions on the basis of wishful thinking and hunches. If I am elected to City Council, I will work to ensure that city decision-making is a well-informed process.
Ellen’s response to Cracker:
I am sorry if your aesthetic sensibilities are offended by the amateur simulation, but (as far as I know) this is the only one that has been attempted.
In the simulation, the retaining walls were placed on the edges of the ridge, not on top.
You are correct in identifying the Target logo as a bit of artistic license, but it’s the only company that has been identified as a participant in this project.
Since the developer’s conceptual plan shows that stores would be located on both sides of the ridge (near the retaining walls), it is reasonable to depict stores on the side of the ridge facing town.
The one that would be most obvious would be the DOE records storage center that is up there already. Can you see it? In fact you know that it is at the end that faces town while the shopping center will be anchored around the bend near Boeing Road. It seems to me that your attempt is in keeping with the COR program of misinformation.
Interesting observation about the records storage building. I checked with the creator of that visual-simulation image. It turns out that the records storage center was not visible in the photo that was used as a base for that simulation.
Then I wonder how the shopping center which is on the far side of that property will be visible. It appears that the “simulation” was designed not to simulate reality.
I believe you are mistaken, Cracker (or else you have privileged information that has not been provided to the rest of us).
The conceptual site plans for Crestpointe that I’ve seen (for example, in the City’s January 29th presentation) show most of the stores lined up along the long side of the ridge nearest the city. In contrast, that existing building that you talk about is on the “far side” of the ridge, near Y-12.
Check out your third picture above. If you are sighting along Illinois past the McDonalds right at the Document Storage building with the shopping center off to the left and receding away. Think about it as a table and you are sitting on the floor below it. All you can see is whatever is on the front edge, ie the Document Storage building with buildings farther away hidden by the angle looking up.
Look again, Cracker. The McDonalds is not actually at the place where the little Golden Arches symbol appears (a rather long black line points from that symbol to the actual location).
The visual simulation was created from an actual photo of the view from a spot near the Doubletree Inn, and that building (which is not on the “front edge” of the ridge as seen from town) is not in the photo.